Daily Newsletter                                        January 11, 2012

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Today's Topic:  The hypothesis

Yesterday we talked about the nature of science, and we will continue with that topic.  Remember that science is based on observable, empirical and measurable data.  It is not a mere guess.  To bring something to the realm of public knowledge, we must have evidence (data) to present.  Anecdotes, while amusing and inspiring, are not evidence.  But how do we go about knowing what type of evidence to look for?

That is ultimately where the hypothesis comes into play.  We all make observations of the world around us.  One feature that separates scientists from other people is their inherent or trained talent for asking questions about the observation.  In the mind of a scientist, these questions will eventually form into a hypothesis.  A hypothesis is a tentative explanation of a phenomenon that can lead to predictions that can be tested experimentally.  That can be tested experimentally.  So a hypothesis must lead to an experiment.  If it does not lead to an experiment (or to a mathematical proof), then it is not a hypothesis.  But there is one other often neglected feature of a hypothesis:  a hypothesis must allow for the possibility that the hypothesis is false.  This potential falsifiability is critical.  If a proposition has no possibility of being wrong, then it is not a hypothesis.

Here are a few characteristics of good hypothesis:

• Testability: can you run an experiment or a mathematical proof?
• Falsifiability:  Can the hypothesis be falsified?
• Simplicity:  Is this the simplest explanation of the phenomena?
• Scope:  Can the hypothesis be applied to multiple cases of the phenomena?
• Fruitfulness:  Can the hypothesis potentially explain further phenomena?
• Conservatism:  How closely does the hypothesis fit with current knowledge?

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Today's Challenge:

Think of the concept of a hypothesis.  In your life, how have you heard this word used?  On television, internet and radio adds, have you heard people talk about products that have been "scientifically" tests?  Think about politicians and various biotechnologies.  Blog about how this word is used.  Can you determine if these various hypotheses are good?